WATCH YOUR BACK IN THE EAST, SLN..!

It is no secret that the LTTE is a thug-business enterprise cum terror outfit. Its single priority has always been the welfare of the psychotic top gorilla, who hides in a hole in the ground and sends innocents to die for a lost 'cause'. While there's really no need to go off on a limb to prove any of this, there are some new developments in the regional political arena that may work to his advantage even though the Sri Lankan military forces have decisively proven their superiority and capability of finishing off the LTTE soon.

The on-set of Indian elections provides an easy platform to manipulate for the 'Tamil cause in Sri Lanka' which is solely responsible for decimating the SL tamil population and reducing it to the status of the 4th minority. The Indians are becoming jittery over a combination of the 'Tamilnadu factor' and the Chinese and Pakistani influence in Sri Lanka. While niether are serious issues in reality, politics is about appearances, and there's pressure growing on the Indian political leadership to do something that can be sold to the masses. Hence the quick excurtion by the top Three Indian Muskateers to Colombo, ostensibly for the purpose of demanding a political solution to the 'ethnic problem' from the Sri Lankan government.

This raises a number of interesting issues; Sri Lanka doesn't have an 'ethnic' problem. How do you find a political solution to a terrorism problem, and how far is a democratic nation required to bend backwards to reward outright terrorism against its people? The Second issue is the most interesting; ' or else, what?...

Given the fact that even as an extreme solution India cannot carve out a seperate state for the Tamils simply due to the impracticality of the proposition, the best bet would be for them to work behind the scenes to promote pressure thru' third parties such as the EU to instigate war-crimes investigations etc. All these prospects make for interesting, if not intense international political drama focussed on Sri Lanka in the coming months.

In the meanwhile, the rapidly changing military dynamics are pushing the LTTE to the brink of the abyss. SL Defence Forces are closing in fast and will soon be within spitting distance of Velupillai's hole in the ground. Given the fact that the Norwegians would be willing to extract the mass-murderer if that becomes necessary, the LTTE would need to keep a route to the seas open for such an emergency.

Therefore, on the military front, the SL Forces and Intelligence would do well to watch the East and be prepared for an attack designed to change the status-quo in that theatre. The greatest likelihood is of a sea-tiger swarm attack on naval vessels, facilitated by the Jeyanthan guys providing the rear guard. Intensified combat in Mannar can lead the Army to concentrate its forces in the western arena, opening itself to a sneak attack on the Eastern front. Clear access to the seas on the Eastern sea-board will also facilitate Tiger leadership's plans for an escape route, far from the watching Indian Navy.